Key facts and figures:
* CO2 emissions from burning fossil
fuel are projected to rise by 2.5 per cent in 2014 - 65 per cent above
1990 levels, the reference year for the Kyoto Protocol - China, the USA,
the EU and India are the largest emitters – together accounting for 58
per cent of emissions.
* China’s CO2 emissions grew by 4.2 per
cent in 2013, the USA’s grew by 2.9 per cent, and India’s emissions grew
by 5.1 per cent.
* The EU has decreased its emissions by 1.8 per
cent, though it continues to export a third of its emissions to China
and other producers through imported goods and services.
*
China’s CO2 emissions per person overtook emissions in the EU for the
first time in 2013. China’s emissions are now larger than the US and EU
combined. 16 per cent of China’s emissions are for goods and services
which are exported elsewhere.
*CO2 emissions are caused primarily
by burning fossil fuels, as well as by cement production and
deforestation. Deforestation accounts for 8 per cent of CO2 emissions.
*
Historical and future CO2 emissions must remain below a total 3,200
billion tonnes to be in with a 66 per cent chance of keeping climate
change below 2°C. But two thirds (2,000 billion tonnes) of this quota
have already been used.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production increased by 2.3% in 2013, with
a total of 9.9±0.5 GtC (billion tonnes of carbon) (36 GtCO2) emitted to
the atmosphere, 61% above 1990 emissions (the Kyoto Protocol reference
year). Emissions are projected to increase by a further 2.5% in 2014. In
2013, the ocean and land carbon sinks respectively removed 27% and 23%
of total CO2 (fossil fuel and land use change), leaving 50% of emissions
into the atmosphere. The ocean sink in 2013 was 2.9±0.5 GtC, slightly
above the 2004-2013 average of 2.6±0.5, and the land sink was 2.5±0.9
GtC slightly below the 2004-2013 average of 2.9±0.8. Total cumulative
emissions from 1870 to 2013 were 390±20 GtC from fossil fuels and
cement, and 145± 50 from land use change. The total of 535±55GtC was
partitioned among the atmosphere (225±5 GtC), ocean (150±20 GtC), and
the land (155±60 GtC).
The growth of the global Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) for 2013 was 3.3%. The fossil fuel carbon intensity of the
economy declined (improved) by -1.0%yr-1. The 2014 projection of 2.5%
growth is based on the world GDP projection of 3.3% made by the
International Monetary Fund and our estimate of improvements in the
fossil intensity of the economy of -0.7%.
In 2013, global CO2
emissions were dominated by emissions from China (28%), the USA (14%),
the EU (28 member states; 10%) and India (7%). Growth rates of these
countries from 2012 to 2013 were 4.2% for China, 2.9% for the USA, −1.8%
for the EU28, and 5.1% for India. The per-capita CO2 emissions in 2013
were 1.4 tonnes of carbon person-1yr-1 (5.1 tCO2) for the globe, 4.5
(16.4 tCO2) for the USA, 2.0 (7.2 tCO2) for China, 1.9 (6.8 tCO2) for
the EU28, and 0.5 (1.9 tCO2) for India.
Of the total emissions
from human activities during the period 2004-2013, about 44% accumulated
in the atmosphere, 26% in the ocean and 30% on land. During this
period, the size of the natural sinks has grown in response to the
increasing emissions, although year-to-year variability of that growth
is large.
The ocean sink is estimated by using observations for
the period 1990-2000, and an ensemble of seven global ocean
biogeochemistry models for the trend and variability. The models were
normalized to the observed mean ocean sinks for the 1990s. Models were
forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for
Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. In addition,
three observation-based estimates of the ocean sink were used to
provide a qualitative assessment of confidence. In 2013 the ocean sink
is estimated to have removed 29% of total (fossil fuel plus net land-use
change) CO2 emissions.
The land sink is calculated as the
residual of the sum of all sources minus the sum of the atmosphere and
ocean sinks. An independent estimate of the consistency of the residual
land sink is obtained by estimating the land sink from 10 dynamic global
vegetation models. In 2013 the land sink is estimated to have removed
23% of total (fossil fuel plus net land use change) CO2 emissions.
China released its climate change goals for 2020
China has pledged to reduce its carbon emission intensity, namely
emissions per unit of GDP, by 40 percent to 45 percent by 2020 from the
2005 level. It will also aim to bring the proportion of non-fossil
fuels to about 15 percent of its total primary energy consumption. By
the end of last year, China had reduced carbon dioxide emissions per
unit of GDP by 28.56 percent from 2005, which was equivalent to saving
the world 2.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, Xie said.
NBF
- China is targeting to reduce emissions per unit of GDP by 12-17%. If
China increases GDP by 7% per year then GDP would increase by 50% from
2015 to 2020. Achieving 17% reduction would still mean 33% more
emissions or about 4 billion tons of carbon or 14.7 billion tons of CO2.
CO2 weighs 3.67 time more than carbon.
At the end of 2013,
China's consumption ratio of non-fossil energy to primary energy stood
at 9.8 percent. Forest growing stock had increased by 1.3 trillion cubic
meters from 2005 to two trillion cubic meters, seven years ahead of
schedule, according to the official.
In the first nine months of
2014, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 4.2 percent
year on year and carbon intensity was cut by about 5 percent, both
representing the largest drops in years, he said.
Other targets include increasing forest coverage by 40 million hectares within the next five years.
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